Cuba in the Dark: The Cost of Losing Venezuelan Oil

Early in the morning on 16th October, a fire broke out at Unit 1 of the Ernesto Guevara Power Plant in Santa Cruz del Norte, approximately 50 kilometers east of Havana. Investigators found the cause to be a lubricating oil leak in the unit's rotor. Firefighters put out the fire and no one was injured; however, by the end of the day, 75.5 percent of Cuba was expected to be without electricity at the same time, the highest percentage since the Cuban government started releasing this data in 2022.

The fire did not hit a working system. With peak demand expected to reach about 2,900 megawatts, Cuba had only 740 megawatts available. Eight of Cuba's sixteen thermoelectric units were already offline when the fire started. One of these was the Antonio Guiteras plant, Cuba's largest, which had broken down on 14th October. The Ernesto Guevara plant itself was built in 1991 using Soviet technology, and Unit 1 had already broken down three times this year, in February, April and May.

The fire was only the trigger. The real cause goes back to Caracas. From the time Hugo Chávez became president in 1999, Venezuela provided Cuba with discounted oil in exchange for doctors, military advisers and security personnel. According to energy expert Jorge Piñón, the 30,000 to 35,000 barrels per day that Venezuela supplied covered about half of Cuba's oil deficit. Cuba produces only around 40 percent of the crude oil it needs. Venezuelan shipments stopped in January, when U.S. forces captured Maduro. Mexico suspended its own deliveries to Cuba on January 27, and President Trump threatened heavy tariffs on any country selling oil to Cuba. Since then, only one Russian tanker has reached Cuba. By May, Cuba's Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, announced that Cuba had run out of its diesel and fuel oil reserves. Because of the lack of jet fuel, airlines including Air Canada and Air France suspended their flights to Cuba. The United Nations also launched a $94.1 million emergency appeal, warning that the fuel shortage could cost lives.

Although Washington allows limited fuel sales to Cuba's small private businesses, according to de la O Levy, these cover less than three percent of Cuba's fuel needs. U.S. authorities have also intercepted fuel shipments heading for Cuba. For example, on October 7, U.S. authorities seized ninety biodiesel shipments worth over $2.8 million that were going to Cuba. The Cuban government denies any link to these shipments. Cuba's electrical grid has completely collapsed eight times so far this year.

Cuba's economy is falling along with its electricity supply. The dollar reached 800 pesos on the informal market for the first time on October 16, up from about 700 pesos in mid September. Cuba's official exchange rate is 716 pesos per dollar. At the informal rate, the average monthly state salary of 7,354 pesos is worth approximately nine dollars. Long blackouts also stop the water pumps and the fridges used to store food and medicine, and there is very little fuel left for cooking and transport.

In response to the crisis, the Cuban government is focusing on renewable energy. Over the past few years, Cuba has built 144 solar farms with about 1,418 MW of capacity, mostly using Chinese-made solar panels. However, renewable energy covered only about nine percent of Cuba's total energy use in 2023. Solar power cannot close a gap this large quickly, especially when most of the grid runs on equipment from the 1960s to the 1980s. Politically, both sides are standing their ground. In his speech at the United Nations General Assembly in September, Cuba's Foreign Minister called the U.S. oil blockade "unprecedented", accusing a superpower of deciding on its own which countries other nations are allowed to trade with. The U.S., on the other hand, has said it is only open to talks if Cuba changes its government. The U.S. has also sent the first shipments of a $100 million aid package to Cuba.

There is an uncomfortable contrast here. Venezuela is producing more oil than it has in years, and a growing share of that oil is going to the United States and other foreign partners rather than to its old ally. Still, Washington is not solely responsible for the situation. Cuba's grid was already failing in 2024 and 2025, while Venezuelan oil was still arriving, because of decades without serious investment. The U.S. blockade did not create the crisis. It removed the last thing holding the grid together.

Gustavo Gimenez (Year 13)